July 17, 2003
Why Pejman's list of possible leaders of secular Iran is funny
When I wrote about Pejman's suggestions for future leaders of a secular Iran, I thought it was so absurd that it didn't event need an explanation. But now I guess it needs it.
(Note: Google results are for their names in Persian. They only try to show their presence on the Internet Persian community.)
1. Mehdi Karrubi is a very powerful cleric who not only has any popularity, but is not a secualr person in any way. He was one the closest clerics to Ayatolah Khomeini and even now he always appreciate the "Velayat-e Faghih" notion in Islamic Republic of Iran. He is the man who, by reading Khamenei's letter, single-handedly prevented any change in press law. He has proved to be very faithful to the notions of religious democracy. Compared with the current president Mohammad Khatami, Karrubi is less popular, less intellectual than hi,. Rumors about his corruption is very wide-spread. he used to be tha parliament's speaker before in Khoemeini's period.
Google result: 1,130
2. Hossein Loghmanian is a very ordinary MP who happend to become the first arrested MP in Islamic Republic of Iran. He then was released after a day or two mainly by influence of Karrubi. He is too far from having the minimum qualities of a political leader, let alone I doubt he can be a mayor of a small city.
Google result: 559
3. Hashem Aghajari is more of an ideologue and scholar than a political leader and activist. He has missed his leg during the Iran-Iraq war when he was a faithful man to Ayatollah Khomeini and the Islamic roots of the revolution. Being a memeber of a very influential but small leftist political group, "Mojahedin Enghelab Eslami", he and his friends have always been the main target of traditional right-wing political groups such as "Heyat Motalefeh".
Google result: 2,200
4. Who is Mahmud Ali Chehregani? I have never heard of him. He might be a popular person in some parts of iran with Turkish background, but a brief poll will show that how much popular or even known he is among average Iranian people. He has almost no appearence in the public political scene of Iran.
Google results: 68
5. Reza Pahlavi is very well-known but not as much popular. The more educated the people, the more likely to dimiss him as a political leader. He hasn't lived in Iran since he was about ten years old and lacks the minimum qualitiies of a political leader, such as personal athority, first-hand experience of the Iranian society, influence on intellectuals etc. However, despite my own opinion agasint him, he is the only person in Pejman's list that basically fits in this list of possible future leaders of a secualr Iran. There is no way the other four agree with a secular system!
Google result: 2,200
Posted by hoder at July 17, 2003 1:47 PM
"Hossein, just so I can update your post and provide more insight on the discussion: Mahmud Ali Chehregani is a proponent of a Federalist Iranian state much akin to the US where Iranian Azerbaijan would be granted somewhat of a peudo-independence. However, just to note, I've heard on various occasions that Chehregani desires to establish a seperate Azeberijan state all together."
It would be a good idea to address this issue in any Iranian constitution. I wrote the following article into a draft constitution for Iraq and/or Iran:
"Clause 4: No province shall, without consent of Congress, secede from this Union for a period of 20 years after ratification of this Constitution. After 20 years, provinces may secede from this Union, upon assent by two referenda of 2/3rds of the citizens of the province, the referenda being separated by a period of 5 years. Even with secession, no province may deny Iraqi citizenship to any person born within the territory formed by the original Union."
It's just a draft, and the number of years could be played with, as well as whether or not the secession vote would be a referendum, and whether it would require a supermajority or not. My draft is basically to get people thinking.
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"Apparently the movement has no real leader, All they need is a constitution... Leader for what when you do not have a plan? I hope students this time would not repeat the mistakes when the first generation of revolution did ( i.e. Abdi. etc..)... and instead of following a charismatic leader, they follow a constitution..."
Yes, absolutely. These are the critical steps for building a nation: 1) Describe the overall goals (i.e., ideals, such as were mentioned in the U.S. Declaration of Indpendence, 2) formulate an outline that addresses those ideals (i.e. a Constitution), and 3) elect leaders who are COMMITTED to following those ideals, as described in that outline.
The most important questions of ideals are: 1) Will the government rule the people, or the people tell the government what to do?, 2) Will the government's primary purpose be to protect individual rights, or to build roads and airports, provide healthcare, etc.?
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To Jim C.... Appearntly the movement has no real leader, All they need is a constitution... Leader for what when you do not have a plan?
I hope students this time would not repeat the mistakes when the first generation of revolution did ( i.e. Abdi. etc..)... and instead of following a charismatic leader, they follow a constitution...
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Who are some leaders in Iran that you think the students/moderates would support?
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Pejman's list of possible leaders, well, first thing first how is Mr. or Ms Pejman, I can make a list and write down a list of my mates and claim that they are the REAL leaders... as I said on the other comment at Hoder.com... Credibility and knowladge of the writer is as important as the nature of news..
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Hossein, just so I can update your post and provide more insight on the discussion: Mahmud Ali Chehregani is a proponent of a Federalist Iranian state much akin to the US where Iranian Azerbaijan would be granted somewhat of a peudo-independence. However, just to note, I've heard on various occasions that Chehregani desires to establish a seperate Azeberijan state all together. Notes on his past and present activity can be found at an article by Professor William Beeman of Brown University. Moreover the National Iranian American Council covered the panel discussion on "Iran, Iranian-Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan after the Iraq-Iran War" in which Chehregani participated in. That link can be found here. Given Chehregani participation with the Pentagon and conservative factions of the US government, I wouldn't be completely suprised to see Chehregani having some role in the Iranian government. In fact he used to be a former member of the Majlis back in the day. I would argue that Chehregani has a greater chance of being in government then Pahlavi does based on both experience and "popular" backing amongst certain sectors of the Azeri population (if we were to take both his figures and Beeman's figure to truth, which I leave open to debate.) Whether or not that would occur in a scenario where there is peaceful transition is also more open to debate then the other figures presented on the list all of which lack significant criteria's to be effective in a democractic and secular Iran. I hope that helps...
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Seyed,
Regarding congress we, as in moderate Iranians who aren't trying to bring the monarchy back are leaderless. The MEK's influence on the hill is dead mostly because of a series of stories that ran in The Hill ran right after the Iraq war.(Search MEK or MKO and you can read offices distancing themselves away from the group) I see MEK supporters from time to time in front of the congressional office building but they in essence have no real political clout. As far as who does? The only real group that seems to exist and have any influence in Washington is Reza Phalavi's orgnization. And while he may not be saying he wants to be put into power, no doubt the orginazation supporting him (monarchist tv channels who will get the money) are doing that work "behind" his back.
Hossein, nice post. Though I don't follow everyday figures in Iran, I did a google search on the names I didn't recognize and figured Pejman was bogus. It's nice to be reassured from someone who does follow the people better. Wonder if neo-con bloggers will pick up on your post, and illuminate themselves a bit.
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Hossein, it would be most educational to have your own list of potential secular leaders or parties that may be involved in running Iran. Perhaps dividing them into persons / groups with internal support and those with external support.
I'd particularly like to hear of what groups are lobbying the US congress effectively. The only one I am aware of having congressional support is the cult-like Mujahedeen but their status as a recognised terrorist organisation and Iranian antipathy towards them should make them irrelevant to any who are not indoctrinated into the worship of Maryam and her MIA husband.
I don't think the Pahlavis are much of a factor even with their old foreign support. When Mossad dismissed the prince-in-exile (sic) as being too Westernised and not regal enough to rule, you got to assume his financial and political backing is minimal beyond a core romanticised following.
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