July 18, 2003
Bush will follow Blair
Watching Tony Blair's wonderful speech in U.S congress, and the press conference afterwards, I guess, from now on, it is Tony Blair who is going to lead the so-called international coalition against terrorism. Blair has been able to gain Bush's total trust, which eventually means that British government will not only be acting as a bridge between Eroupe and U.S, and also Muslim world and Christian world, but also be very influential on the way U.S will deal with internatinal issues. In other words, Blair would be the brain for the powerful and wealthy body of Bush. Meanwhile Bush is going to be invloved with internal problems during the next year and so, specially he should be preparing to run for the second term. therefore you will see Blair as bush's substitute in the world in the next couiple of months, I guess. Needless to say which administration would do a better job in terms of dealing with international problems.
Posted by hoder at July 18, 2003 1:22 PM
Blair has many problems at home. Last week on a national news channel 60% voted in the survey for Blair to quit over the death of the Ministry of Defence employee.
Many people I know think that Blair's time is up. I personally think he's a very intelligent man and wouldn't be suprised if he regains the trust of the majority of the population in time for the elections. However, I don't like the way he's conducted himself in an arrogant manor in the last few months and will certainly not vote for his party but a left wing one that want the UK to be as close to Europe as it is to the US.
That's my two-pences worth.
Navid
ps. I don't know how I could forgive the current US government for its treatment of the X-ray prisoners. To me and most of my friends it seems like a blatent double standard - this is exactly why people in Europe are so reserved about the current US government. No one is saying they should be released, but that they should be treated humanely and given fair trials - until everyone of them has been given a fair trial I don't think I could take Bush and his right-wing men seriously.
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I think your read of the situation is a little off, Hoder. Blair isn't going to lead anything except the campaign to line up more European support for the war on terror. He gives a great speech, and that's very useful (since Bush sounds like an illiterate). But Bush is more committed and steadfast than Tony in this endeavor, and his advisors aren't about to let the U.S. take a back seat to England. Rumsfeld, Cheney and Condy Rice will set the policy, but Blair will certainly have Bush's ear and can get a favor or two out of it.
Blair is also in a weaker position domestically, partly because of the parliamentary system they have in England, where his rivals occupy important positions in his cabinet, and most certainly because he is head of a left-wing party that is very unhappy with this particular policy. Bush is head of a party that strongly supports the war on terror, and his country also supports it. When he gets re-elected (if he doesn't make any dumb mistakes, it will be a landslide) he will be in an extremely powerful position.
Besides, Bush likes Tony but he doesn't entirely trust him (Tony's a socialist and he has a large muslim population that he has to kowtow to). My guess is Blair will be doing alot of the diplomatic work, while Bush takes pretty much whatever position he wants with some modification to help Tony's domestic situation.
As for being a bridge between the Christian and Islamic worlds, Bush means to make the muslim countries buckle under and reform - only then will he be willing to build any bridges - on his terms.
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Hmmmmmm...
Interesting perspective, Hoder. I completely agree with you that Blair's speach was wonderful (I would have said - "brilliant".)
Blair's brain and Bush's body and political power? So far I can't think of any drawbacks.
The more I hear Blair speak the better I like him. His low approval ratings at present will be temporary as things look up in Iraq over time. History will show that he and Dubya were on the right track. - IMHO ;-)
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I don't know.. Tony has plenty of internal strife he's dealing with in the UK as well..
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