Interview with Brazilian paper

Leda Balbino from O Estado de S. Paulo has done an email interview with me about the current situation in Iran. But I wanted to write something about the new developments about the election and the sit-in anyways. So I thought publishing this Q&A could be helpful for some people now:

1. Do you think Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s call on Wednesday for a thorough review of a ban on more than 3,000 candidates for the next elections would be a real sign of victory for reformists? Why?

No. It's still just a call. No action has taken place yet by the Guardian Council.

2. Is it possible that Khamenei’s intervention weaken the President Mohammad Khatami’ administration, because Khatami didn’t get a solution for the problem by himself? Why?

Don't think so. Although Khamenei's intervention may be abused later by hardliners for those reformists that have entered the parliament using the review in order to make them silent.

3. Reza Yousefian, a reformist MP joining the sit-in, said his colleagues disagreed with the president’s tactics and viewed the crisis as a crossroads for the reform movement. Do you agree with him? Why?

Yes, I think the real reformists are coming out of this crisis. It's a great chance for them to separate themselves from conservative groups such as Karrubi's Rohanioon Mobarez who are not real reformists. The young, educated, and more radical reformists will come out stronger than before and might end up popular again among young Iranians who want more radical changes.

4. You lived in Iran until 2000; Khatami was first elected in 1997, promising to make democratic changes in the country. In this three-year period as inhabitant of Iran and for you can see now as a “foreign” analist, do you think your country had improvements related to economic situation, international relations and civil rights? Why?

Yes, it has actually. We might not be satisfied enough to realize these subtle changes, but the whole political and social atmosphere has changed during the past 7,8 years. If it was not for a brutal and abusive judiciary system, everybody in the world could see how the new generation of Iranians and their different value system has brought serious change to Iran.

Just look at the number of female Iranian students, number of weekly and monthly magazines, number and the average age of Mosque attendants, number of Internet users, number of Internet Service Providers, number of financial and business newspapers that have just started during the past 3 years, etc.

The biggest change is that the whole political system is now much more transparent than a decade ago. So everybody is informed about anything somehow. A decade ago, people were going to jail and were staying for several months without any charges and nobody even knew it.

The other change is that even the hardliners try to find a legal justification for their actions. the rule of law has been getting institutionalized.

5. Is it possible Iran turn itself in a democratic (in the ways viewed by western eyes) place? Is the western concept of democracy something possible for your home-born country? Why?

Yes, it is. But not very soon. If we can go towards a change in the constitution at some point and try to minimize the power of the Supreme Leader and maxims the power of elected institutions, we can really achieve a real democracy. The Supreme Leader in that scenario could act as a symbolic figure like Ahmad Zaher Shah in Afghanistan. I'm sure that gradually all the opposition groups inside and outside Iran are going towards a consensus about the necessity of a change in the constitution as the only way out of the ongoing political crisis.

6. Why did you move to Canada?

Iran is not exactly the best place for any Technology and freedom-loving man or woman. A lot of my friends have left Iran for the West during the past 4 years to live or continue education. They can live more or less freely and happily in the West. But I'm sure a lot of them --and maybe myself-- go back to Iran when the social freedoms are respected and economy is in a better status.

7. What are the leading differences between the two countries? What do you miss of Iran?

The big difference is that here people are living to make money and this is so sad to watch. People are only alive for the weekends. They work so hard during the weekdays that when they get home, they can't even spend time for their hobbies. And it's unbelievably cold in the fall and winter, by the way.

I miss the whole social Network that I had built thought the years in Iran. Although Internet and cheap calling cards are now very helpful, yet they can make my social network useful.

I also miss the amazing lifestyle that Iranians have: going out every night, seeing friends and family several times a week, etc.

I also miss the great mountains in the North of Tehran, the feel of buying Iranian newspapers everyday and being shocked by a piece of news or quote every time, working in newspapers as a journalist with all of its excitements and stress, tasteful and organic fruits, amazing flat whole-wheat breads, etc.

But I don't miss the heavily polluted air in Tehran. It's getting worse everyday and nobody even cares about it.

8. How do you see the youth of Iran? Is it a population linked to the western values, that wishes reform and would fight for civil rights, especially for women?

Yes, they carry totally different values such as rationality, individuality, self-expression, tolerance, non-violence, etc. There are major improvements in the way the young men see and respect women's rights, but not good enough yet. However, the women themselves have changed dramatically from silent underdogs to active agents of change everywhere.

9. How does the treatment given to women damage the country?

Many families have only left Iran because of the hard time the women have. But generally, Iranian women have been smarter to let Islamic cover prevent them to study, work, and have fun. They don't like the Hijab and they remove it whenever they can, but they don't limit all their rights and fight only to that. They have been the big reason of major changes in the value system of new generation that I mentioned.

10. What is Iran’ image abroad? Is it a correct perception or is it filled by prejudice?

In Europe it's usually better as far as I know. But here, in North America, people don't bother realizing the difference between Iran and Iraq. Also a lot of people think Iranians are like their rulers: traditional, anti-Western, etc.

11. What would be the leading differences between Iran and the others countries of Middle East?

Iranians have been pioneers of culture and ideas. They were the first to talk about democracy, among the first to have newspapers, etc. Now they have the most open democratic and independent government, which despite all the problems, are much closer to a Western democracy than many others in the region, except for Israel and Turkey.

12. The Guardian Council said on Sunday (January 18) that it stood by a decision to disqualify thousand of reformist candidates for the next elections. Is it a signal that the Council didn't respect Khamenei's call for a review of the ban? Why?

Not really. Although they have their own internal power struggle in the right-wing camp, they can't afford objecting to Khamneie's orders publiclly. After all, they are all directly or indirectly appointed by the Leader himself.

13. What would happen after this decisison? Is it possible that the reformists give up of theirs sit-in? Why?

The more time passes, the less it seems that they give up. They have two hidden purposes: to gain popular support by resisting the threats and to show that it's not only about their own interest, but people's as well; to arouse people to actually go to poll stations and vote.

If they give up without convincing the public that they've achieved what they had protested for --and it was people's right to choose, not for their own disqualificaation-- they will badly loose the whole war: they loose the public support forever, and they'll be in hands of the brutal judiciary and Leader's supporters. So they have no choice other than resisting until they are all approved.

14. Today (January 19) the Iranian president's political party has threatened to boycott elections if the candidates are not reinstated. After that, do you think the Guardian Council will reconsider its decision or this threaten is all that the Council wanted? Why?

No, the hardliners can't afford getting a very low turnout because of the international pressure. So the more united the reforsmist camp appears, the more probable that the GC will give up and approve most of the candidates. (They've already approved 200 of them yesterday.) So although the group you mentioned have very conservative viewpoints and actually been approved by the GC, they haven't been able to resist the pressure of other factions in the reformists camp and have joined their cause.

15. In your opinion, why reformist's protest didn't get support of Iran's population?

People have lost their trust to the reformists both because of their big compromises (especially by Khatami) and by the fact that all of their important legislation was rejected by the GC. Also the reformists have lost their connection with ordinary people because they have no control over any sort of mass medium. Their newspapers, their only medium now, have a circulation of max. 500,000 all together.

But as I said, if they really appear tough and honest, they might regain some support, at least among some of the student groups.

However, the new generaion doesn't care about the political power struggles. They already have their underground social freedoms and they know nobody can turn them to public freedoms. So why they should care when the result doesn't affect their lifestyle? They are now more into social freedoms rather than political ones.

16. How does this crisis affect Khatami's administration?

I guess for the first time they are not in the frontline and they love it. Khatami is not a tough person by character and he doesn't like to be in the frontline. Whenever he has been there, he has given up to the powerful and tough Leader, Khamenei. So he loves to be the follower, not the leader of any protest or political row. Maybe that's why he's shown more courage this time by threatening to resign than in previous crisis where he was the only one under the presure of hardliners.