March 1, 2006
The illusion of Iranian people vs. the governemnt
There is no clear line separating people from the government in Iran.
This is a big conceptual mistake many make these days, especially the Bush administration to cover its failure to design a concrete and substantive policy on how to deal with the complex political system in Iran.
Without the oil revenue, a dysfunctional state like Iran with a high unemployment rate and a broken economy, could not possibly survive.
In the absence of a healthy economy with a functional private section, millions of peoples' lives depend on the government and while they are directly or indirectly benefiting from the oil revenue, it's unfair to expect them to suddenly turn against their government, no matter how repressive it is.
Separating ordinary Iranians from "Mullahs" is only possible on paper, so are the resulted strategies and policies.
Posted by hoder at March 1, 2006 11:39 AM
I'm really surprised to hear you make the claim the "no clear line" argument in light so many accounts from inside Iran which indicate that everyone hates the government.
As to the question of the government controlling everything and keeping the people down, couldn't the same argument have been made about the Soviet Union, Serbia, Ukraine and Georgia, not to mention a whole host of other places in the former communist sphere (and in places like Central America)? Seems to me that Iran is, in many ways, the Soviet Union with an Islamic veneer.
I realize, by the way, that the above is to some extent an oversimplification, but I remember a lot of people saying for years if not decades that X people would never rise up against their government because the government controlled the purse strings and kept them down.
Would you be in favor of an oil embargo against Iran? It would certainly drive the price of oil up worldwide and would hurt the Iranian people in the short run, but that's what it sounds like you are advocating. Would be interested in your thoughts.
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Which is worse? Bush's hope for a free and democratic Iran or the fact that you use this as another chance to bash Bush?
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You mean separating "insiders" from mullahs is difficult because for the vast majority of iranians without any link to bazaris and mullahs this should not prove to difficult.
Besides the oil will not disappear with the mullahs if they are ousted.
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According to an article I read in the Foreign Affairs magainze (wish I could tell you by who, but I lost the magazine) Iran has more then 33 billion dollars in foreign currency reserves. The price of oil is quite high already, don’t you think a major part of the “Policy on Iran” question is global economics. In esence “How long can Iran last without selling oil? But really; How long can we(USA China India Europe) last without Iranian oil and gas?”
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