In the last couple of days something very interesting happened in Persian blogosphere which you might not have heard of yet. I'll write about it soon. However you can follow it by reading my last couple of posts in Persian blog. I've added their summaries on the right side of this page, as you can see.
The following paragraphs from the New York Times about the reasons of Dean's popularity reminds of the similar situation that led to the election of President Khatami 7 years ago in Iran.
Look, I've worked in presidential campaigns since 1968, and I worked as a junior person for Bobby Kennedy in 1968," said Ethan Geto, the New York State director for the Dean campaign. "And I have never, ever, ever seen anything like this phenomenon, this amazing turnout."
Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida who has studied youth voting, said the attacks on Dr. Dean might have been particularly discouraging to his young supporters. "One of the things that really does make people mad is what they perceive as beating up a candidate by the press," she said.
Khatami didn't use new technologies to win the support of young people, but he was regularly attacked in public media by the hardliners and he became the underdog which was not the leader's favorite. He also drew millions of young people who had never voted or even cared about the elections before.
Now the hardliners have learned that big lesson and that's why Khamanei, the Leader, does not interfere in these kind of things as much as possible. He has understood that it's enough for a man or woman to oppose to him to get the popular support.
I haven't forgot about the idea of a collective nomination for The Iranian Parliament that I suggested a couple of weeks ago. But wanted to do it in the right time to get as much publicity as it could. Although the protest has captured the hole election debate now, I guess we have to launch it in the coming weeks.
But I have a problem and I appreciate if anyone can help me out: I'm looking for a little piece of script that can work like an online dating application in which can register, post their platform, upload pictures, and maybe comment on each others ideas and plans. I definitely don't have a budget for it right now, unless I really don't find any free one. More details can be found in a MetaFilter post I wrote while ago.
So please help me out. We are kind of running late.
Leda Balbino from O Estado de S. Paulo has done an email interview with me about the current situation in Iran. But I wanted to write something about the new developments about the election and the sit-in anyways. So I thought publishing this Q&A could be helpful for some people now:
1. Do you think Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s call on Wednesday for a thorough review of a ban on more than 3,000 candidates for the next elections would be a real sign of victory for reformists? Why?No. It's still just a call. No action has taken place yet by the Guardian Council.
2. Is it possible that Khamenei’s intervention weaken the President Mohammad Khatami’ administration, because Khatami didn’t get a solution for the problem by himself? Why?
Don't think so. Although Khamenei's intervention may be abused later by hardliners for those reformists that have entered the parliament using the review in order to make them silent.
3. Reza Yousefian, a reformist MP joining the sit-in, said his colleagues disagreed with the president’s tactics and viewed the crisis as a crossroads for the reform movement. Do you agree with him? Why?Yes, I think the real reformists are coming out of this crisis. It's a great chance for them to separate themselves from conservative groups such as Karrubi's Rohanioon Mobarez who are not real reformists. The young, educated, and more radical reformists will come out stronger than before and might end up popular again among young Iranians who want more radical changes.
4. You lived in Iran until 2000; Khatami was first elected in 1997, promising to make democratic changes in the country. In this three-year period as inhabitant of Iran and for you can see now as a “foreign” analist, do you think your country had improvements related to economic situation, international relations and civil rights? Why?
Yes, it has actually. We might not be satisfied enough to realize these subtle changes, but the whole political and social atmosphere has changed during the past 7,8 years. If it was not for a brutal and abusive judiciary system, everybody in the world could see how the new generation of Iranians and their different value system has brought serious change to Iran.
Just look at the number of female Iranian students, number of weekly and monthly magazines, number and the average age of Mosque attendants, number of Internet users, number of Internet Service Providers, number of financial and business newspapers that have just started during the past 3 years, etc.
The biggest change is that the whole political system is now much more transparent than a decade ago. So everybody is informed about anything somehow. A decade ago, people were going to jail and were staying for several months without any charges and nobody even knew it.
The other change is that even the hardliners try to find a legal justification for their actions. the rule of law has been getting institutionalized.5. Is it possible Iran turn itself in a democratic (in the ways viewed by western eyes) place? Is the western concept of democracy something possible for your home-born country? Why?
Yes, it is. But not very soon. If we can go towards a change in the constitution at some point and try to minimize the power of the Supreme Leader and maxims the power of elected institutions, we can really achieve a real democracy. The Supreme Leader in that scenario could act as a symbolic figure like Ahmad Zaher Shah in Afghanistan. I'm sure that gradually all the opposition groups inside and outside Iran are going towards a consensus about the necessity of a change in the constitution as the only way out of the ongoing political crisis.6. Why did you move to Canada?
Iran is not exactly the best place for any Technology and freedom-loving man or woman. A lot of my friends have left Iran for the West during the past 4 years to live or continue education. They can live more or less freely and happily in the West. But I'm sure a lot of them --and maybe myself-- go back to Iran when the social freedoms are respected and economy is in a better status.
7. What are the leading differences between the two countries? What do you miss of Iran?
The big difference is that here people are living to make money and this is so sad to watch. People are only alive for the weekends. They work so hard during the weekdays that when they get home, they can't even spend time for their hobbies. And it's unbelievably cold in the fall and winter, by the way.
I miss the whole social Network that I had built thought the years in Iran. Although Internet and cheap calling cards are now very helpful, yet they can make my social network useful.
I also miss the amazing lifestyle that Iranians have: going out every night, seeing friends and family several times a week, etc.
I also miss the great mountains in the North of Tehran, the feel of buying Iranian newspapers everyday and being shocked by a piece of news or quote every time, working in newspapers as a journalist with all of its excitements and stress, tasteful and organic fruits, amazing flat whole-wheat breads, etc.
But I don't miss the heavily polluted air in Tehran. It's getting worse everyday and nobody even cares about it.8. How do you see the youth of Iran? Is it a population linked to the western values, that wishes reform and would fight for civil rights, especially for women?
Yes, they carry totally different values such as rationality, individuality, self-expression, tolerance, non-violence, etc. There are major improvements in the way the young men see and respect women's rights, but not good enough yet. However, the women themselves have changed dramatically from silent underdogs to active agents of change everywhere.9. How does the treatment given to women damage the country?
Many families have only left Iran because of the hard time the women have. But generally, Iranian women have been smarter to let Islamic cover prevent them to study, work, and have fun. They don't like the Hijab and they remove it whenever they can, but they don't limit all their rights and fight only to that. They have been the big reason of major changes in the value system of new generation that I mentioned.
10. What is Iran’ image abroad? Is it a correct perception or is it filled by prejudice?
In Europe it's usually better as far as I know. But here, in North America, people don't bother realizing the difference between Iran and Iraq. Also a lot of people think Iranians are like their rulers: traditional, anti-Western, etc.11. What would be the leading differences between Iran and the others countries of Middle East?
Iranians have been pioneers of culture and ideas. They were the first to talk about democracy, among the first to have newspapers, etc. Now they have the most open democratic and independent government, which despite all the problems, are much closer to a Western democracy than many others in the region, except for Israel and Turkey.
12. The Guardian Council said on Sunday (January 18) that it stood by a decision to disqualify thousand of reformist candidates for the next elections. Is it a signal that the Council didn't respect Khamenei's call for a review of the ban? Why?
Not really. Although they have their own internal power struggle in the right-wing camp, they can't afford objecting to Khamneie's orders publiclly. After all, they are all directly or indirectly appointed by the Leader himself.
13. What would happen after this decisison? Is it possible that the reformists give up of theirs sit-in? Why?
The more time passes, the less it seems that they give up. They have two hidden purposes: to gain popular support by resisting the threats and to show that it's not only about their own interest, but people's as well; to arouse people to actually go to poll stations and vote.
If they give up without convincing the public that they've achieved what they had protested for --and it was people's right to choose, not for their own disqualificaation-- they will badly loose the whole war: they loose the public support forever, and they'll be in hands of the brutal judiciary and Leader's supporters. So they have no choice other than resisting until they are all approved.
14. Today (January 19) the Iranian president's political party has threatened to boycott elections if the candidates are not reinstated. After that, do you think the Guardian Council will reconsider its decision or this threaten is all that the Council wanted? Why?
No, the hardliners can't afford getting a very low turnout because of the international pressure. So the more united the reforsmist camp appears, the more probable that the GC will give up and approve most of the candidates. (They've already approved 200 of them yesterday.) So although the group you mentioned have very conservative viewpoints and actually been approved by the GC, they haven't been able to resist the pressure of other factions in the reformists camp and have joined their cause.
15. In your opinion, why reformist's protest didn't get support of Iran's population?
People have lost their trust to the reformists both because of their big compromises (especially by Khatami) and by the fact that all of their important legislation was rejected by the GC. Also the reformists have lost their connection with ordinary people because they have no control over any sort of mass medium. Their newspapers, their only medium now, have a circulation of max. 500,000 all together.
But as I said, if they really appear tough and honest, they might regain some support, at least among some of the student groups.
However, the new generaion doesn't care about the political power struggles. They already have their underground social freedoms and they know nobody can turn them to public freedoms. So why they should care when the result doesn't affect their lifestyle? They are now more into social freedoms rather than political ones.
16. How does this crisis affect Khatami's administration?
I guess for the first time they are not in the frontline and they love it. Khatami is not a tough person by character and he doesn't like to be in the frontline. Whenever he has been there, he has given up to the powerful and tough Leader, Khamenei. So he loves to be the follower, not the leader of any protest or political row. Maybe that's why he's shown more courage this time by threatening to resign than in previous crisis where he was the only one under the presure of hardliners.
Surprisingly, somebody seems to have read my last post, suggesting that the reformist protestors in the parliament to start a weblog. They now have a weblog-- in Persian.
A computer magazine in Tehran, who has close ties to one of the young and Internet savvy MPs, Ali Akbar Moosavi, has confirmed that it's the official blog of the sit-in organizers.
However, it's far from being a weblog, let alone a good one. It's being served on the free Persianblog.com; there is nothing interesting written in it, just the public announcements by them; it's not clear who is posting to it; it doesn't have links to other resources; etc.
But the good thing is that, apparently, while they have no access to any Iranian TV or Radio, they've embraced weblogs as a great means of a) publishing their announcements and program b) reaching the young Iranians who have long lost their interest in politics whatsoever.
I hope this will show them the importance of weblogs as a political tool which they will really need if they want to get the votes of de-politicized youth of Iran.
Wish I was there and could really blog the sit-in in both Persian and English.
By the way, you can send them emails asking for an English blog. Although they might not do it to prevent hardliners accusing them of spying or threatening the national security. Here is the email: sitin@hotmail.com (I know, they look very cheap! They should move this blog to the official Parliament's website; or at least get a domain name.)
I just posted an open letter to Reza Khatami, deputy Parliament Speaker who is also one of the organizers of the ongoing sit-in in the Parliament, in my Persian weblog.
I asked him to start a weblog in Persian and English and get some reporters to post unofficial news and updates along with unofficial pictures; of course if they want to be heard in the world.
Weblogs are their best live medium while the Iranian TV and Radio is totally ignoring them and their only newspaper is not capable to be published more than once a day.
This could give a serious recognition to this amazing democratic ethnology among Iranian activists and politicians. They must do it immediately. They'll never regret it.
I'm not a right-wing fan in Iran or else, but I think the recent protests by the reformists about their ban to stand for parliament, is more of a power struggle than really fighting for people's basic rights.
There is a big conflict of interest here at the ongoing sit-in and requesting people to join it; because their own fate, as a political faction, is in danger in the near future; as well as it is a threat to people's right to elect.
But personally I guess if the reformist MPs were in fact after people's rights, amid their own risks, they should've done the same when the Guardian Council rejected the bill to join 'the UN convention against discrimination against women', or even when they rejected the bill to revise the present election law.
Should the reformists really want massive support, as Alireza Alavi-Tabar suggests, they have to radicalize their platform and to define a new framework beyond the constitution. They all know where the problem lies (the unlimited power of the uncontrolled Leader) and they eventually have to do something about it.
Alongside, they could separate themselves from the conservative groups such as Rohanioon Mobarez (Mehdi Karrubi's group) who have cleverly displayed themselves as reformists while they all believe in, more or less, the same principles as the conservatives. The irony is that Karrubi and all other nominates from his group are accepted by the Guardian Council.
I don't think Iranian youth would engage in the current political row unless they see a real change in reformists platform, which could translate to a collective call for changing the constitution or something as politically significant.
As I had expected, the Guardian Council, a close body to the conservatives and the Supreme Leader, has barred all key reformists to stand in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
This includes Reza Khatami, the head of the main reformist party, Jebhe-e Mosharekat, who is the younger brother of the president. Names of Ebrahim Yazdi, the head of Nehzat-e Azadi, the main Nationalist group; Behzad Nabavi, the head of a small but very influential center of the left group called Sazman-e Mojahedin-e Enghelab-e Eslaami. Khatami and Nabavi are already MPs from Tehran.
Not very surprisingly, Mehdi Karrubi, who is the head of the right of the left group, Rohanioon-e Mobarez, and its main members have been approved. He and his group were among the closest to the Ayatollah Khomeini especially in the last years of his life and mostly get their legitimacy by being with him. They are mainly conservative clerics who had in fact devided the reformist camp by some of their views on support for radical Islamic groups in Lebenon and Palestine, Nationalist opposition groups, freedom of the press, social freedoms, etc.
So I think conservatives are ready to pay whatever price to get back the parliament and then the government, even the turn out would be very low.
Reformists have been talking about refusing to participate in elections if they are barred from standing. Now it appears to be the case.
Pars Online is the first company that has been granted the permission to provide ADSL connection in Iran. The government has decided this today and they've happily put the news on their website using huge banners that has covered the whole front page.
Surprisingly, ParsOnline is the first Internet Provider that started to filter blogspot, persianblog and other popular weblogs such as mine, even before any blacklist was published by the government, many of them still blocked. In response, PersianBlog blocked all IP addresses that came from Pars Online and as far as I know the dispute hasn't resolved yet.
Today's news about the ADSL license adds to peoples doubts about the possible relationship between Pars Online and the government. I have heard from my friends at some ISPs in Tehran that Abdi Fateh, the CEO, knows very well how to bribe the authorities and has actually managed to buy many of them. So he can't risk it's expensive business network by some uncontrollable and decentralized network of weblogs.
Average users are very pissed off about the way Pars Online handle it's tougher-than-the-government filtering and many have boycotted its service, despite their quality and reasonable prices.
So I'm going to focus a bit on them and by putting up internal and maybe external pressure, make them leave their tough attitude towards Net censorship and especially weblogs.
I'm thinking of different things actually: Google bombing, Flash-mobs, contacting their business partners in the West, petition against them to human rights advocating groups, etc. I'd like to hear some creative ideas with the least personal risks for Iranians inside. We should stop them making money out of censorship and bribing authorities.
If you need a proof that Iranian youngsters don't have any interest in politics, you must see this stats report for the most popular Iranian websites.
You see that a website called Jeegar is on the top with over 100,000 visitors everyday. It's content: links to mainly soft porn material on the Net. The next website is Gooya, a simple but old and lucky directory of popular Iranian websites; next is Baztab, a political news website close to the center of the right; then is Dalghak, an entertainment portal without any particular content; and Gooya News is next which is the most popular news site close to the reformists and the left in general, with only 30,000 visitors.
I noticed the huge impact of Jeegar.com when I discovered the hugest hike in my visitors ever as a result of a link on Jeegar to a post in my weblog about board games; over 4,000 visitors had come to my blog by a single link from Jeegar in two days and they keep coming.
Looking at the details of Jeegar.com's stats report, there is no doubt in my mind that what the young Iranian wants is not necessarily an open, transparent government. They need to have fun like all other people in their age group in the World. Although you sometimes do not know what exactly should come first: the democratic and secular government, or social freedoms.
I guess new conservatives are getting ready to ease the lives of young people as soon as they capture the parliament and the government. I don't really like the conservatives, even the younger ones; but I believe that after a few years of reform process which has actually been effective in many ways, there is need to cross some of the borders; and it's only conservatives that can do that. Did you see how quickly and easy they accepted the change of a controversial street name in Tehran?
Over four hundred Iranians have thanked all those aid teams who came from abroad, especially from the Europe and the U.S., to save lives of earthquake survivors in Bam and sacrificed their Christmas.
Please link to the letter Pedram has written and many have signed, so they can actually see Iranians appreciate their help, if the regime hasn't.
Iran and Egypt changed the names of two streets which were thought to be offensive to both sides. Egypt changed the "Pahlavi" and Iran changed "Khalid Islamboli". What is unsaid in that Tehranians actually never used even the previous name, let alone the new one, "Intifida". For all of us that street is called "Vozara", meaning Ministers, which I think was named about 3 decades ago.
People in Tehran, are extremely worried and concerned about a highly possible quake in the center of Tehran with more than 15 million of population. It's always been a sensitive topic in the last two decades, but after the Bam quake which killed two third or even more of 85,000 population of the small city, a collective fear has found it's way in everybody's lives in Tehran.
The biggest signs are the links Tehranian bloggers give to some recourses predicting the huge toll and destruction of Iranian capital as a result of a relatively big quake. Damsanj, which is like the Blogdex for Persian blogosphere has several links related to quake in Tehran. (Most popular is "A guide to survive the Tehran earthquake.")
Oddly enough, Shargh has covered the story on its front page. This is rare because the government has prevented journalists to talk too much about the quake in Tehran fearing it may cause a huge panic. But now, I guess, the amount of stress is so high that the government can't control the discussion about it anymore.