Editor: Myself

No Ahmadinejad

As much as I dislike Ahmadinejad, I don't think the guy in this picture is him. They look similar, but have differenet eyes and eybrows.

Brussels

I´m in Brussels right now and can´t use my London mobile number. Please email me and I´ll send you the new number.

Reformists' media problem

I don't dare to say that the majority of Iranians do not demand socio-political freedoms, just because Ahmadinejad has won the elections.

To me it means two things:

1. Social inequality is a serious problem in Iran, for which Rafsanjani was heavily responsible. He was beaten by the outcome of his policies.

2. The reform movement can't reach beyond a certain population. They only have newspapers and Internet, with an approximate reach of five to seven millions. While the regime has a monopoly on TV and radio, the reformists can't even reach the majority of the middle-class, especially the youth, who are not into reading anymore, let alone the lower-class in rural areas.

On the other hand, satellite TVs which has a much wider reach than print and Internet, are promoting exactly the opposite message of the reform, which has proved it only benefits the regime, especially during the elections, by creating an atmosphere of apathy.

Until the reformists change this balance, they are doomed to loose the elections. They have to invest time and money in satellite TV channels etc. and try to decrease the wide-spread apathy, especially among the youth.

British Airways

I've come across to a major flight problem with the British Airways. Can anyone help? It's urgent. please email me at hoder@hoder.com

Ahmadinejad vs. Khatami

Let me give an example of how an Ahmadinejad government can affect people like me, or more particularly, me.

If he comes to power, which seems to be very likely due to wide-spread middle-class apathy, he would bring back the partisan intelligence officials to the ministry of information, the same people who stopped from leaving Iran last week.

Then the friendly and knowledgeable officer who interviewed me in Tehran and asked me to write something, explaining my 'controversial' positions and posts, could easily be replaced by a violent, ignorant guy without any knowledge about blogs and Internet.

Then instead of a four hour of relaxed and reasonable conversation, he would detain me, beat me and keep me in an undisclosed location for at least a week, and would make me write hundreds of pages of forced confessions against my friends, family and myself.

Instead of letting me go, he would introduce me to Saeed Mortazavi, the beloved Tehran's chief prosecute and the person responsible for the death of Zahra Kazemi.

Basically, one of the greatest achievement by Khatami was a major change in goals and methods used by the intelligence community and Ahmadinejad's administration could simply reverse that.

Rafsanjani faces result of his own policies

It's ironic. Rafsanjani is facing the outcome of his own carelessly designed economic policies which also continued during Khatami's term.

Ahmadi Nejad represents the widening income as well as human capital gap between middle and lower-class Iranians. He represents frustrated people who have to work at least two jobs to make a basic living, let alone sending their children to universities.

They seek help from a man who not only looks like early revolutionaries, but also promises a return to the early principles and methods of the revolution, in a bluntly old-fashion way.

On the other hand, the apathetic rich, consumed by simplistic political analyses mas sly produced by LA based sat elite TV channels, most of them run by Iranian who have never been to Iran for the past two decades, can not see the threat of a fundamentalist government.

They live in two different worlds, with two definitions of reality. Iran is a divided society, not between red and blue states, but between two states of minds: future and the past.

Hoder in LA Times

Here is a proof that I really was in Tehran:

Iranian Blogger Returns From Exile for Vote (Nahid Siamdoust, Los Angeles Times)

By Nahid Siamdoust, Special to The Times

TEHRAN — In a trip financed by his online fans, Hossein Derakhshan, the godfather of the Iranian blogosphere, returned to his native country last week to cover the presidential election after five years of self-imposed exile.

Derakhshan, 30, had left Iran after authorities shut down the newspaper for which he worked during what he described as the country's worst period of press restrictions. From Toronto, Derakhshan influenced Iran's media culture by creating his Web log titled "Editor: Myself" and by helping other Iranians set up their own blogs. In a country where media censorship is pervasive, blogs have become a key instrument of dissent.

In the heat of the Iranian presidential election, Derakhshan finds himself in a predicament facing many reformists: having no choice but to support former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Derakhshan, who supported reformist candidate Mostafa Moin in the initial round of voting, has switched to "the enemy camp," as he calls it, to back Rafsanjani. The former president is in a runoff Friday with hard-line candidate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Before last Friday's balloting, Derakhshan had posted an entry on his blog (www.hoder.com) challenging claims by Rafsanjani's supporters that the candidate had changed since his years as president, when civil freedoms were fewer than under current President Mohammad Khatami.

A day before last week's election, Derakhshan visited Moin's headquarters and for the first time met some of the leading reform strategists, many of whom had been following his blog. Reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh, who was surprised to see Derakhshan, joked: "They will arrest you either way. If Moin wins, we'll at least know where you are."

Derakhshan has been critical of the Islamic Republic's policies, especially in the English version of his blog. "The English site gives me more protection. The authorities care about the influence that I have on Iranians inside, most of whom read the Persian site," he said, sipping a cafe latte at a Tehran coffee shop.

His blog is blocked inside the country by Iranian authorities, but many users have figured out how to get around the filter. He had feared persecution if the authorities learned about his travel to Iran, his second trip home during his time in exile. In a June 10 entry, before embarking on his trip, he wrote, "I miss my country and I am frustrated that I must have fears of going back simply because of the words I have written in my weblogs."

He later announced his trip to Iran on his English blog, asking readers not to write about it in Persian, warning in a June 13 entry, "You are playing with my safety by doing this."

About four years ago, Derakhshan wrote instructions in Persian on how to create a blog, turning him into the creator of weblogistan, as the community of Iranian blogs is known.

The reformist newspaper Eqbal, which along with three other publications was shut down Monday for publishing a presidential candidate's letter alleging election fraud, announced earlier that Derakhshan would be at a Moin campaign event. Dozens of his readers showed up to meet him.

Said Shafii said he had read "Editor: Myself" from its first day. "Within a month, thousands [of Iranian blogs] mushroomed. All of a sudden, we were all addicted. There were no restrictions in weblogistan, whether we wrote about politics or personal matters," Shafii said.

But it was not long before a government crackdown on blogs started. One prominent blogger, Sina Motalebi, was arrested in 2003 and soon after fled to the Netherlands. Last fall, Tehran prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi ordered the arrest of more than 20 bloggers, all of whom were imprisoned for several weeks. So far, at least two have been sentenced to long jail terms.

Blogging and other electronic communications have become such a cultural phenomenon in Iran that most presidential candidates created personal websites this year to woo young voters, who represent a majority of the electorate.

The Iranian blogosphere has been an instrument for greater transparency. Former Vice President Mohammed Ali Abtahi joined the community in November 2003 by creating a site called "Webnevesht," meaning writings on the Web. On the site, Abtahi provided insight into the workings of the Iranian government and published the testimonies of bloggers who said they had been abused during their detentions.

Hanif Mazroui, who was among the bloggers released from prison, came to meet Derakhshan at the Moin event. He said his imprisonment proved to him the power of blogging.

"Web logs are not like newspapers that you can shut down easily. There are ways to circumvent filters, and if they shut down your blog, you can just open another one," Mazroui said.

Derakhshan had planned to spend a week in Iran, "taking advantage of the more relaxed atmosphere that always exists before elections," but he stayed a few days longer. He said he received a government message that if he respected the Islamic Republic's unwritten publication guidelines, the filter on his site would be lifted and he would be able to travel to and from Iran freely, without fear of arrest.

"It is amazing that even I, who doesn't live in Iran and operates in cyberspace, will in some form have to limit myself and conform to the rules of the Islamic Republic if I want to be able to visit my country without problems," Derakhshan said. He added, "But I will do it, and that is because I want to be able to reach readers inside Iran."

Iranian journalists have established language ambiguous enough to express their points of view while keeping them inside authorities' invisible red lines, in addressing such sensitive issues as those regarding supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, religious sanctuaries and methods of government control.

"Filtering me is to their disadvantage," Derakhshan said, "because I am fundamentally against regime change and believe that reforms must come from within."

Like some Iranian bloggers, he is opposed to television programs produced in Los Angeles and broadcast to Iran via satellite that campaign for revolution and urge voters to boycott the presidential election.

In his blog posting Wednesday, Derakhshan argues that "politics is always about choosing between bad and worse," and though he won't be here to vote Friday, he urges voters to prevent the election of Ahmadinejad, whom he and others believe would curtail some Khatami-era freedoms.

Derakhshan sees the runoff as a referendum on the hard-line faction's vision for Iran. "Just like eight years ago, when people gave a definite 'no' to that ultraconservative vision by voting en masse for Khatami, they will once again go out and cast their ballots in a referendum."

Derakhshan says he thinks Iranians have had to adopt a double consciousness. "Just like they can switch between state television and Western satellite programs by pressing a button," he said, "so they switch in their daily lives. This artificiality is imposed on them and they have to deal with it. In effect, most Iranians live two lives, the private and the public.

"The Web log community is one space where Iranians can be themselves. It works against hypocrisy. It can only be good for Iran."

I'm back

Just arrived in London. Everything is ok.

For media inquiry, you can reach me at: +44 (0)7 74 28 35 929 or email me at hoder@hoder.com

Ahmadi Nejad, the fundamentalist

I totally disagree with the Western journalists who brand AhmadiNejad as a hard line conservative. He is, with no doubt, a total fundamentalist who is not even shameful of it: They call themselves "Osool gerayan" or literally fundamentalist.

Meanwhile the political climate is rapidly changing in favour of Rafsanjani. All non-fundamentalist groups are rallying behind Rafsanjani, as they see him as the only choice Iran now has to escape a fundamentalist government.

People are also becoming more conscious about this crucial choice, which could be seen as a total referendum on Supreme Leader's vision for the future of Iran. I've personally come across to some young friends who didn't vote in the first round, but are going to vote for Rafsanjani in the second.

So I'm seeing signs of a large voter turnout again, especially in big cities where people are worried about their social, and cultural freedoms, which in turn increases the chance of another Rafsanjani term.

However, if Rafsanjani can't win by a safe margin, as commit ed as Ahmadi Nejad supporters are, it's likely to see some sort of small-scale and legit coup, like the one happened last year during the opening of the Imam Khomeini International Airport in South of Tehran.

No text messaging

SMS or mobile text messaging is playing a big role in Tehran these days. You can't have a mobile phone and not receive several text messages everyday. Jokes, short news, rumours, etc. they are now officially part of campaigns.

But today, according to ISNA , Saeed Mortazavi, chief prosecutor of Tehran, has released a warning for people who use SMS to spread news, views, and jokes for or against candidates, usually against the fundamentalist candidate, "Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad":

Those who don't comply "will be prosecuted and their phones will be seized," the note reads.

The coming coup

Things are really getting nasty here. After Karrubi's unbelievably blunt letter to the Supreme Leader, everything is suddenly changing. All non-fundamentalists are rallying behind Rafsanjani. Many are talking about a possible coup by Sepah and Basij after Friday's second round results.

It's also rumoured (now confirmed ) that Eqbal and Aftab, pro-reform newspapers, were seizes in the printing house last night after they published full text of the letter.

Karrubi for the first time has publically challenged the Supreme Leader and has accused his son of paving the way for an unexpectedly high vote for Ahmadinejad.

As for my own self, I've been advised to stay in Tehran for a couple of more days. But I have to attend a conference in London on Wednesday and if I can't get there by then, it'll be a huge risk staying in Iran.

Stay tuned.

Ahmadinejad effect

One good thing about an Ahmadinejad term could be that it would end the apathy among the youth born after the Iran-Iraq war.

They are the best thing that could happen to the regime of Iran, for they have never struggled for their rights and ambitions. They are absolutely satisfied with what teh regime provides them with, be it cheesy Iranian pop music, or wheat alcohol.

His excellency's voting machine

So here it was. The robots of the supreme leader came in from behind and when nobody was expecting it, voted for Ahmadinejad, a populist conservative with a socialist economy.

Basij and Sepah forces, added to millions of the Guardian Council's representatives who were at the polling stations all five millions of them, voted for Ahamdinejad and made it possible for the supreme leader to actually run the country, directly, for the first time.

Even if Rafsanjani goes to the second round with Ahmadinejad, Khamanei's voting machine will act again and will make Ahmadinejad the new president of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The pro-reform youth are so disappointed and depressed. Nobody knows what will happen next. But Khamenei is the biggest winner of this game. He now has both the big turn-out (plus a middle-finger to Bush), and a quasi-president who is only a cover for his excellency.

Is it possible the Iranian leader has learned this from Mr. Bush's win?

Surprises

Just came back from the Moin campaign's HQ. Everyone is sure that Moin is going to second round, butthe question is in the first or second place.

Big news of the night Ahmadinejad's surprising rise. He has done much better than many expected.

The other surprise is Karrubi's high vote in small cities. Former speaker of the parliament, he was the one who promised to give 500,000 Rials (some $50) to all citizens between 18 and 55.

In my view they both indicate the widening income gap between upper and lower class. Voting for Ahmadinejad and Karrubi means a major dissatisfaction with their income.

Shargh online is doing a great job in collecting the initial numbers.

Blogs vs. MSM: International coverage

I can't belive that mainstream media in Iran are ignoring all signs of a reformist candidate's rise and still pushing for Rafsanjani as the saviour.

This is where blogs are breaking the MSM monopoly on intrenational news. We are seeing signs the MSM either fail to see or doesn't want to show.

This is unbelievable. See Nasrin Alavi's latest post on Iran Scan.

When TV ads harm, rather than help

Apparently Western journalists haven't seen the change in the mood of the city. The thing is many undecided voters are now breaking for the reformist candidate and sometimes it's rare to find anyone voting for Rafsanjani.

Some people are saying that his latest campaign tv shows, despite their neat format and implementation, are harming him by showing him desperate for people's attention. And honestly I agree.

Iranians have a totally different approach to advertising. It's often said only low-quality goods need advertising and if you produce something valuable, you wouldn't need to promote it.

At the same time, Rafsanjani 's resume has not wiped out of people's minds as someone responsible for what the regime is now. Doubts about his abilities and honesty is best described with jokes people have been saying about him throughout the past two decades.

Akbar Shah , or Akbar king, says a lot about what the Iranian mindset is saying about his character in general. It means, referring to how Iranians kings have usually been throughout the history, he is basically a dictator who may have a vision, but is so corrupt and unreliable nobody trusts him. He can't easily erase that image from people's psyche.

Unreliable polls

Driving around Tehran, you'll see Rafsanjani 'supporters' are everywhere. But don't make a mistake.

Many of these young boys and girls on the streets are not going to vote Rafsanjani. He is just an excuse for them to gather and have fun. The same way they gather during religious Shia festivals for Imam Hossein. They look like they are genuinely interested in what they do, but if you start talking to them, you'd see they are probably checking out hot girls and boys behind you.

Along the same lines, polls are usually not reliable when it comes to Rafsanjani. Best example was sixth parliamentary elections in which he was at worst among the top five, but ended up in 30th place.

I believe one third of survey respondents lie about who they are going to vote for. Rafsanjani's name is enough to scare many ordinary Iranians. They think they'd be in trouble if their answers are not what they guess the interviewee wants. They are such smart actors in this game.

So the race is closer than anybody thinks. Don't be surprized if Moin becomes the front-runner.

Two main boycott supporters turn to voting

Today's reformists meeting in football field of Tehran university was wonderful. It was a bit too long, but it was almost full. Thousands of young men and women, maybe by the average age of 26, 27, had shown up despite the extremely hot weather and the burning sun.

But most significant thing happened today was the official announcement by two very popular reformist figures who actually had long boycotted the elections, but now changed their mind and encouraged people to participate and vote.

They were Mohsen Kadivar, the outspoken and smart cleric who spent about two your in jail for his anti-Khamenei stands, and Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, the young female reformist MP who was the first MP who resigned after the parliament election fiasco last year. Now they are backing Moin's campaign.

Also was significant that Reza Khatami, Moin's to-be-vice president, didn't speak at the meeting. The reason, though, became obvious after Moin himself started talking: He is such a bad speaker, despite his innocent face and likable character.Khatami on the contrary, is a passionate speaker. So he could have overshadowed the main candidate who is Moin.

But who cares? Nobody is actually going to vote for Moin for himself. The is the first time that a presidential candidate is earning credibility from his campaign staff, not the other way around. Eight years ago, few knew Mohammad Khatami's main campaign team and strategists. But now Hajarian, Tajzadeh, Reza Khatami, etc. are more popular than Moin himself.

So I think Moin will be facing an bigger challenge the the one with Khamanei: how to deal with people who offered them candidacy and would be setting all important policies and strategists had he win. In this respect, Moin is very much like Bush.

By the way, I've taken so many photos and recorded numerous videos, but due to internet censorship and low-speed connection I can't upload them.

Low profile

It's not an accident that I haven't posted anything about my return to Tehran in my Persian blog. My Persian and English audience are very different and by doing this I want to keep a low profile for my own safety.

So plesae do not write about this in Persian. You are playing with my safety by doing this.

Hopeful Moin

The recent wave of bombing has not really affected the mood of the people. I haven't seen many people talking about it. But those who do, are seeing it as something planned to benefit Rafsanjani or Qalibaf, and to harm Moin. The stability will increase the turn out which is only to Moin's benefit.

Meanwhile, while I was at the Moin campaign headquarters last night, they were quite upbeat about the new poll results indicating Qalibaf's decline and Moin and Ahmadinejad's rise. So some of them were even hopefull about the Moin lead in the last remaining days.

I also want to visit Larijani's campaign which has actually been the worse campaign I've ever seen. Larijani is such a smart guy with a rich resume, but he is such a bad campaginer who even seems lame comparing to Qalibaf who doesn't have tenth of Larijani's stature.

I'm now leaving for Moin supporters' meeting in east-center of Tehran. Will take some pictures as well. I'm so glad I bought this little SD300 from that amazing store in New York City.

The cheesy 'HASHEMI'

It's really painful working with a dialup connection, especially when your own domain name (hoder.com), Flickr, and so many other websites are blocked by TCI. Everything takes take ten times more this way and this simply could make me completely innefective, had I been living here. So kudos to all Iranian bloggers. Seriously.

The other frustrating thing is that without polls, campaigning becomes like wandering in the dark. Don't know about other campaigns, but reformist campaign seems to be more focusing on working on the ground on a more face-to-face level. So all reformist people are now off to smaller cities where they have a better chance to win. Mostafa Tajzadeh, for example, is off to Mianeh today for a campaign speech along with the former reformist MP of the city which has a Sunni and Kurd population.

However, Rafsanjani is using media extensively. His campaign tv show, the other night, was the topic of discussion yesterday. Pro-reform friends were disgusted by a short moment of 'fake' sentiment he had shown off on TV and the way Rafsanjani is using teenagers to remake his image.

Tehran

I arrived on Sunday morning and everything has been okso far. Excpet that it's really hot here and the dial-up internet connection is unbearable.

Went to the women's protest and met some bloggers on the street. Took so many photos and videos which are impossible to upload with dial-up connection.

Oh, by the way. My website (hoder.com) is seriousely filtered here. So is Flickr. this is the most frustrating that itcould get.

I'll write more later.

Please help finance this trip, if you haven't yet.

Sean Penn and me

If the American, non-religious, drinker, drug-user and actor Sean Penn can visit Iran with no probelm, why can't I?

By the way, does anyone know how to reach him in Tehran?

Going home, finally

After weeks of doubt and confusion, I've finally decided to return to Iran next week for a short visit.

Despite the risks, I think this is the safest time for me to visit, because the regime is likely to behave more tolerantly right before the elections on June 17th. It's a small window of opportunity which may not open again for a long time. Especially because it's not clear who the next president will be and how the regime will deal with the internal and international pressure.

I miss my country and I am frustrated that I must have fears of going back simply because of the words I have written in my weblogs. (Read Sina Motallebi's account of his three weeks detention because of his blog postings.)

The second reason I'm taking this risk is because any authority I have on Iranian issues (if I have any) is because I've spent all my life there. It's only since late 2000 that I've been living abroad (I last paid a short visit in the summer of 2002). By being away for too long, I fear I would lose touch with the reality on the ground which would affect the way I think and write.

Finally: I'm a blogger, and if you are reading this post now, you have an interest in what I write about Iran and how I see and describe it. Therefore, as a citizen journalist, this trip will also benefit my readers.

I am going to need your help to finance this trip. In exchange, I will write about my observations from the life and politics in Tehran, will take hundreds of pictures, will record dozens of short videos, will interview countless influential and interesting people, and make podcasts till your ears fall off.

How to support

While I'm doing all this, I may get into trouble. It could vary from polite questioning for a few hours to days of detention in secret places, less than politely. But there are a few things I'd ask you to do, when someone gets arrested in Iran:

• Spread the word: No one can help if they have no idea what is happening

• Get the English-language media involvedt: The Iranian regime is afraid of bad publicity and will panic if faced by collective media coverage

• Get the publicity translated: Nothing exists to the Iranian government unless it's published in Persian in local media or in confidential briefings.

• Don't be surprised: Under duress, I may confess that I've been on the Bush Administration's payroll to undermine the regime by helping to spread use of weblogs; I've tried to weaken moral values of young Iranians by promoting western culture and values; I've been part of a secret network of Israeli and American spies; I've distributed large amounts of money to Iranian dissidents, activists, bloggers and journalists inside in Iran so they can topple the regime.
  Nor should you be amazed to hear me say that I've been running a virtual brothel in Tehran from my apartment in Toronto; I've been trafficking heroin and cocaine to Iran; and I've been secretly dating Natalie Portman and Kyra Knightly and have even an illegitimate child with Rachel Weiz.

• Don't let them fool you: They might try to silence you by saying things like "remain silent and we won't torture him," or "don't talk to local and foreign press about it and we'll take it easy on him," etc. Under extremely high pressure, I myself, might even ask you to keep quiet. But don't listen to any of this. Go ahead! And as Sina Motallebi has said, keep on pressuring the regime using different means of protest.

• Keep it up: Publish daily briefings and reports even if you don't have anything to say just to show the regime you care. They usually cope with the pressure in the beginning but they can't tolerate it in the long run.

Don't be too concerned. I'm hopeful that nothing happens and I will come back and tell the world how vibrant, alive and amazing Iran is these days, and how the world can help Iran move toward a more transparent and democratic system. And of course how ignoring the extraordinary potential within society can damage the gradual move towards human rights and democracy.

If you want to reach me in Tehran, please simply send an email to hoder@hoder.com. For media enquiries please use the same email address with a clear subject and I'll reply as quickly as possible -- if I can find a wi-fi hotspot in jail.

Please use the button below to help finance my trip. Also please link to this post in your blog so more people can help.

Related Links:
* Blog Spring (Jeff Howe, Wired Magazine)
* Writing Lolita in Tehran (Chris Dickey, Newsweek)
* Bloggers of Iran (Katrina Vanden, the Nation)

The Untouchables

The stupid ban on women to attend football games in stadiums was broken yesterday by only two dozens of persisstant, courages young women. (Photos: one, two, three)

This is a turning point for the Iranian women's movement towards more important social and political goals.

I have a strong feeling that this elections will be driven by young women's unprecedented desire and confidence for change and I'm happy to see the reformist camp has totally understood this and is investing on it.

They are pro-refrom, but won't vote

Wonder why? See my latest post on Iran Scan.

Election photo pool on Flickr

We've started a photo pool, Iran Elections 1384 on Flickr for pictures related to the election. So far hundreds of interesting photos have been posted to the pool. You can also contribute to the pool if you have related pictures.

I've also asked my Persian weblogs' readers to tag their election photos as 'election84' so we all know how to easily find them.

From: Iran Scan 1384

Ego

The past few days have been good for my ego. Lots of good publicity, including the following:

• Blog Spring (Jeff Howe, Wired Magazine)
• Writing Lolita in Tehran (Chris Dickey, Newsweek)
• Bloggers of Iran (Katrina Vanden, the Nation)

Oh, this just came in:

• Blog Watch (Jane Perrone, Guardian)

The ego sincerely thanks everyone.