Editor: Myself

Iran Elections 2005: How reformists lost it (Video documentary)

During the 2005 presidential elections, I made loads of short videos with my little Canon photography camera, mostly from the reformists campaign where I spent most of my time.

Then when I got back, I was invited to have a little presentation in the Middle East department at the Columbia University about what I saw in the elections. I decided to put them together in a few chapters and make a longer version documentary.

I wanted to put it in this blog before the recent parliament elections, but I didn't manage to. Here it is now:

Watch: Iran Elections 2005

Why Ahmadinejad is going to be re-elected

Reading this recent Spiegel's story on the roots of Ahmadinejad's popularity simply brought me into tears. This man deserves a lot more respect from all of us. I really regret the time I was so against him as a result of reading so much crappy 'journalism' that the reformists and their foreign allies have been publishing about this man and constantly hanging out with the rich and the nouvo-riche of the Northern Tehran. Honestly, many of us have been extremely unfair and to him and those who supported him.

Ahmadinejad is going to be re-elected, as Dieter Bednarz, wonderfully explains why and I think I'm going to proudly vote for him. I have never seen an Iranian politician so caring and so humble about the needy and the oppressed. Let the his capitalist foes in or out of Iran bash him day and night, but he is in people's heart.

Just read these excerpts from Der Spiegel's story and if you haven't watched Majid Majidi's 'Children of Heaven,' (Part one, part two) watch it:

To understand why the poor remain loyal to the president, you have to travel to Shush -- a district located halfway to the gigantic shrine of the revolutionary leader, a complex on the southern outskirts of Tehran. In Khomeini’s last will and testament, he asked to be laid to rest near the “Mostazafin” -- the poorest of the poor.

Anyone who owns an old motorcycle in this area ranks among the more prosperous residents. Rahman Behnami, 60, is not one of them. The father of seven children repairs shoes for a living. Over the past 24 years, the glue has eaten into the tips of his fingers. He doesn’t own a watch and he has no teeth, but has “great faith in God.” This also means that he lets his neighbour tell him who to vote for. “We are too poor to take an interest in politics,” says Mehrdad Shiri, 23, who runs two kebab joints with his father and wields a certain amount of influence in Shush.

He “took care of us even when he was the mayor of Tehran,” says Shiri, while he attends to his few customers. He talks about how Ahmadinejad came here personally -- to these filthy narrow streets, where a man like Larijani would never set foot. That’s why Shiri voted for him. And he’ll do it again. The president has a knack of appearing to be everywhere at once -- and that’s one of the secrets of his success. As the former mayor, he knows that elections are not won in the intellectual north of Tehran but among the grassroots, particularly in rural areas. He doesn’t seem to care that his spectacular appearances cost a fortune and actually hinder the work of the government, as the opposition contends. Ahmadinejad has already visited all 30 provinces with his cabinet.

Ahmadinejad began to present himself as a man of the people back when he was the mayor. Shortly after his election in March 2003, he opened a kind of public consultation office where people could air their grievances just a stone’s throw from his residence on 72nd Square, in a rather proper neighbourhood in eastern Tehran. Today, less than 100 meters from the plain brick house of the Ahmadinejads, petitioners still submit letters to the current president.

Razai Said Hassan, 60, who has lived a few blocks away for quite some time, can name a handful of acquaintances who have been helped by the head of state: Widows received government grants worth 5 million tumans -- the equivalent of €3,500 -- and others were helped with loans. “He’s really there for us,” says Hassan with praise.

“May God protect him,” says Atife, 28, who has managed to make the jump from the poor south to the centre of town. Back in the slums, she had to live in one room with her husband, her son and her mother-in-law. “It was hell.” Now her small family has two rooms in the better neighbourhood of Bani Hashem.

In their humble flat, bare light bulbs hang from the ceiling. The sofa, the glass cabinet and virtually all of Atife’s belongings are actually second-hand worn-out furnishings distributed by a private foundation. Out of gratitude, she now visits their Koran readings once a week. An acquaintance of Atife’s owes her happiness directly to the president. A fund created by Ahmadinejad granted her a loan for her wedding.

No one can say how long the head of state can afford to be this generous. Many of the newly-elected members of parliament want to put an end to the populist good deeds and have already announced tough debates on the budget. But even harsh critics like former government advisor Lailas think that Ahmadinejad still has a good chance of being re-elected.

According to his close aide Ramin, the president wants to stick to his approach of travelling and distributing to the needy.

“The public coffers are full, very full,” says the friend of the president -- and seeks a comparison with the Prophet: “Didn’t Mohammed distribute the state treasury to the poor before he lay down to sleep?”

Poll: Satisfaction with Iranian economy doubled since June 2007

A lot is being published and said these days about ahmadinejad's diminishing appeal. But aside from this recent parliament elections, I have another reason to say that it is all wishful thinking.

Just take a look at this recent poll results (full PDF version) on Iran, done by the American 'Terror Free Tomorrow' research institution (we're talking John McCain, Lee H. Hamilton, William H. Frist, and Thomas H. Kean on its board).

Satisfaction with Ahmadinejad's economic policies, the poll results show, has nearly doubled since last June. 42% now think that "economy is headed toward the right direction," from 27% last June.

Even in terms of inflation and unemployment, which are the focus of all reports, more Iranians now think Ahmadinejad's government is doing a good job. 42% now think Ahmadinejad's policies "have succeeded in reducing unemployment and inflation", whereas in June 33% thought so.

I think with these numbers and the general confidence in Ahmadinejad among the Iranian lower and middle classes, it is going to be extremely hard for anyone, especially a cleric, even Khatami or Karubi, to beat him next year -- and personally, I am quite happy to see him wining a second round. He has impressively progressed and gained experience in all fronts in the past two years after his initial year of gaffes and miscalculations, which were mainly the reason I was against him until about a year and a half ago.

Impossibility of the media: Huckabee's case

If nothing else, Mike Huckabee's surprising win in Iowa last week is yet another evidence why Laclah and Boudriallard are right on target in their ideas against media as the determining factor in elections. He had spent almost zero money in Iowa and don quite a tiny bit of campaigning there.

Robert Tait markets Rafsanjani to Americans

I'm glad to see The Guardian's Robert Tait now officially showing his Rafsanjanist side these days. Two of his recent pieces are particularly revealing:

"Iran hangs 30 over 'US plots'", a shameless piece of false reporting that tries to connect the execution of murderers, assassins and rapists to Iran's concerns over the real American plots to destabilise the government exploiting the capacities within the Iranian civil society.

The Observer editors -- who are equally to be blamed for that shameless piece of propaganda -- seem to even doubt that U.S. has any plots against Iran and therefore put it in quotation marks.

The other Robert Tait's piece (Khomeini 'sought to drop Death to America chant') in The Guardian is yet another clear pro-Rafsanjani report that we see these days from Tehran-based correspondents since Ahmadinejad came to power.

Tait, who I don't think is able to read Persian, exclusively reports on a new volume of Rafsanjani's endless and self-appreciating memoir that has just come out.

The new volume apparently includes a paragraphs on Rafsanjani's knowledge of Ayataollah Khomeini's disapproval of the popular "Death to America" and "death to the Soviet Union" slogans in Iran, Tait reports.

Even though in the following paragraphs Tait tries to balance his blunt bias toward Rafsanjani, the message of the article is too clear to hide: "Dear America, Rafsanjani will topple Khamanei and rules Iran they way you like. Please support him."

To use his own words, Robert Tait's reporting "comes at a sensitive time for Mr Rafsanjani as he prepares to seek election next month as head of a powerful clerical body, following the death of its sitting leader. Leadership of the assembly would put Mr Rafsanjani, an advocate of renewed ties with America, in a strong position to challenge Mr Khamenei."

Thank you Robert Tait to show us where exactly you stand these days.

Reformists to end conservative's monopoly

Good news coming out of the Interior Ministry's building on the city council elections. Apparently, the reformists are doing much better than expected and it's very likely that they have up to five candidates in the final fifteen member council.

A kiss is not just a kiss

Read my latest post about Ahmadinejad's endoresment ceremony on Iran Scan.

New article

The English version of my article about the Iranian youth and Ahmadinejad's win is now published on openDemocracy with lots of infromative links they've kindly added to it. Please check them out.

• Iran’s young reformers (openDemocracy)

• Ein TV-Sieg (Die Zeit)

Cartoon-friendly president

At least cartoonists are happy to see Ahmadinejad the president

An unwritten law had long prevented Iranian cartoonists from drawing caricatures of the clerics, including Iranian presidents so far.

But Ahmadinejad, who is the first non-cleric president of Iran after over twenty years, is the best thing that could happen to Iranian cartoonists.

Now, Gol Agha, the best-known satire magazine, founded by Kiumars Saberi during the first term of Rafsanjani in early 90s, has Ahmadinejad on its cover.

Under Rafsanjani, because he was a cleric, Gol Agha always drew Hassan Habibi, his deputy as a substitute for Rafsanjani himself.

Cross-posted on: Iran Scan

EU conference on Iran

Here is the summary of my talk in today's conference about the future of EU relationship with Iran.

Ahmadinejad's first-round vote is not much higher than the conservatives' usual share of vote. So he is not representing a change in the mood of the county or in middle-class's political taste. His second-round vote says nothing about him though. It was a 'No ' to extremely unpopular Rafsanjani who was, to many ordinary Iranian, much more of an establishment figure than a challenger to it.

Three reasons were among the biggest for his rise:

• Khamanei's voting machine that can easily produces over one million votes for the favored candidate in any election.
• Deep socio-economic gap which was a direct result of the careless economic reforms started from Rafsanjani's term 16 years ago and was more or less continued in the same manner under Khatami.
• Apathy which was heavily encouraged and justified by LA-based satellite TV channels that have produced a paradigm of apathy and indifference, mixed with a deep interest in developing conspiracy theories especially against Rafsanjani.

Reformists' media problem

I don't dare to say that the majority of Iranians do not demand socio-political freedoms, just because Ahmadinejad has won the elections.

To me it means two things:

1. Social inequality is a serious problem in Iran, for which Rafsanjani was heavily responsible. He was beaten by the outcome of his policies.

2. The reform movement can't reach beyond a certain population. They only have newspapers and Internet, with an approximate reach of five to seven millions. While the regime has a monopoly on TV and radio, the reformists can't even reach the majority of the middle-class, especially the youth, who are not into reading anymore, let alone the lower-class in rural areas.

On the other hand, satellite TVs which has a much wider reach than print and Internet, are promoting exactly the opposite message of the reform, which has proved it only benefits the regime, especially during the elections, by creating an atmosphere of apathy.

Until the reformists change this balance, they are doomed to loose the elections. They have to invest time and money in satellite TV channels etc. and try to decrease the wide-spread apathy, especially among the youth.

Ahmadinejad vs. Khatami

Let me give an example of how an Ahmadinejad government can affect people like me, or more particularly, me.

If he comes to power, which seems to be very likely due to wide-spread middle-class apathy, he would bring back the partisan intelligence officials to the ministry of information, the same people who stopped from leaving Iran last week.

Then the friendly and knowledgeable officer who interviewed me in Tehran and asked me to write something, explaining my 'controversial' positions and posts, could easily be replaced by a violent, ignorant guy without any knowledge about blogs and Internet.

Then instead of a four hour of relaxed and reasonable conversation, he would detain me, beat me and keep me in an undisclosed location for at least a week, and would make me write hundreds of pages of forced confessions against my friends, family and myself.

Instead of letting me go, he would introduce me to Saeed Mortazavi, the beloved Tehran's chief prosecute and the person responsible for the death of Zahra Kazemi.

Basically, one of the greatest achievement by Khatami was a major change in goals and methods used by the intelligence community and Ahmadinejad's administration could simply reverse that.

Rafsanjani faces result of his own policies

It's ironic. Rafsanjani is facing the outcome of his own carelessly designed economic policies which also continued during Khatami's term.

Ahmadi Nejad represents the widening income as well as human capital gap between middle and lower-class Iranians. He represents frustrated people who have to work at least two jobs to make a basic living, let alone sending their children to universities.

They seek help from a man who not only looks like early revolutionaries, but also promises a return to the early principles and methods of the revolution, in a bluntly old-fashion way.

On the other hand, the apathetic rich, consumed by simplistic political analyses mas sly produced by LA based sat elite TV channels, most of them run by Iranian who have never been to Iran for the past two decades, can not see the threat of a fundamentalist government.

They live in two different worlds, with two definitions of reality. Iran is a divided society, not between red and blue states, but between two states of minds: future and the past.

Ahmadi Nejad, the fundamentalist

I totally disagree with the Western journalists who brand AhmadiNejad as a hard line conservative. He is, with no doubt, a total fundamentalist who is not even shameful of it: They call themselves "Osool gerayan" or literally fundamentalist.

Meanwhile the political climate is rapidly changing in favour of Rafsanjani. All non-fundamentalist groups are rallying behind Rafsanjani, as they see him as the only choice Iran now has to escape a fundamentalist government.

People are also becoming more conscious about this crucial choice, which could be seen as a total referendum on Supreme Leader's vision for the future of Iran. I've personally come across to some young friends who didn't vote in the first round, but are going to vote for Rafsanjani in the second.

So I'm seeing signs of a large voter turnout again, especially in big cities where people are worried about their social, and cultural freedoms, which in turn increases the chance of another Rafsanjani term.

However, if Rafsanjani can't win by a safe margin, as commit ed as Ahmadi Nejad supporters are, it's likely to see some sort of small-scale and legit coup, like the one happened last year during the opening of the Imam Khomeini International Airport in South of Tehran.

No text messaging

SMS or mobile text messaging is playing a big role in Tehran these days. You can't have a mobile phone and not receive several text messages everyday. Jokes, short news, rumours, etc. they are now officially part of campaigns.

But today, according to ISNA , Saeed Mortazavi, chief prosecutor of Tehran, has released a warning for people who use SMS to spread news, views, and jokes for or against candidates, usually against the fundamentalist candidate, "Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad":

Those who don't comply "will be prosecuted and their phones will be seized," the note reads.

The coming coup

Things are really getting nasty here. After Karrubi's unbelievably blunt letter to the Supreme Leader, everything is suddenly changing. All non-fundamentalists are rallying behind Rafsanjani. Many are talking about a possible coup by Sepah and Basij after Friday's second round results.

It's also rumoured (now confirmed ) that Eqbal and Aftab, pro-reform newspapers, were seizes in the printing house last night after they published full text of the letter.

Karrubi for the first time has publically challenged the Supreme Leader and has accused his son of paving the way for an unexpectedly high vote for Ahmadinejad.

As for my own self, I've been advised to stay in Tehran for a couple of more days. But I have to attend a conference in London on Wednesday and if I can't get there by then, it'll be a huge risk staying in Iran.

Stay tuned.

Ahmadinejad effect

One good thing about an Ahmadinejad term could be that it would end the apathy among the youth born after the Iran-Iraq war.

They are the best thing that could happen to the regime of Iran, for they have never struggled for their rights and ambitions. They are absolutely satisfied with what teh regime provides them with, be it cheesy Iranian pop music, or wheat alcohol.

His excellency's voting machine

So here it was. The robots of the supreme leader came in from behind and when nobody was expecting it, voted for Ahmadinejad, a populist conservative with a socialist economy.

Basij and Sepah forces, added to millions of the Guardian Council's representatives who were at the polling stations all five millions of them, voted for Ahamdinejad and made it possible for the supreme leader to actually run the country, directly, for the first time.

Even if Rafsanjani goes to the second round with Ahmadinejad, Khamanei's voting machine will act again and will make Ahmadinejad the new president of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The pro-reform youth are so disappointed and depressed. Nobody knows what will happen next. But Khamenei is the biggest winner of this game. He now has both the big turn-out (plus a middle-finger to Bush), and a quasi-president who is only a cover for his excellency.

Is it possible the Iranian leader has learned this from Mr. Bush's win?

Surprises

Just came back from the Moin campaign's HQ. Everyone is sure that Moin is going to second round, butthe question is in the first or second place.

Big news of the night Ahmadinejad's surprising rise. He has done much better than many expected.

The other surprise is Karrubi's high vote in small cities. Former speaker of the parliament, he was the one who promised to give 500,000 Rials (some $50) to all citizens between 18 and 55.

In my view they both indicate the widening income gap between upper and lower class. Voting for Ahmadinejad and Karrubi means a major dissatisfaction with their income.

Shargh online is doing a great job in collecting the initial numbers.

When TV ads harm, rather than help

Apparently Western journalists haven't seen the change in the mood of the city. The thing is many undecided voters are now breaking for the reformist candidate and sometimes it's rare to find anyone voting for Rafsanjani.

Some people are saying that his latest campaign tv shows, despite their neat format and implementation, are harming him by showing him desperate for people's attention. And honestly I agree.

Iranians have a totally different approach to advertising. It's often said only low-quality goods need advertising and if you produce something valuable, you wouldn't need to promote it.

At the same time, Rafsanjani 's resume has not wiped out of people's minds as someone responsible for what the regime is now. Doubts about his abilities and honesty is best described with jokes people have been saying about him throughout the past two decades.

Akbar Shah , or Akbar king, says a lot about what the Iranian mindset is saying about his character in general. It means, referring to how Iranians kings have usually been throughout the history, he is basically a dictator who may have a vision, but is so corrupt and unreliable nobody trusts him. He can't easily erase that image from people's psyche.

Unreliable polls

Driving around Tehran, you'll see Rafsanjani 'supporters' are everywhere. But don't make a mistake.

Many of these young boys and girls on the streets are not going to vote Rafsanjani. He is just an excuse for them to gather and have fun. The same way they gather during religious Shia festivals for Imam Hossein. They look like they are genuinely interested in what they do, but if you start talking to them, you'd see they are probably checking out hot girls and boys behind you.

Along the same lines, polls are usually not reliable when it comes to Rafsanjani. Best example was sixth parliamentary elections in which he was at worst among the top five, but ended up in 30th place.

I believe one third of survey respondents lie about who they are going to vote for. Rafsanjani's name is enough to scare many ordinary Iranians. They think they'd be in trouble if their answers are not what they guess the interviewee wants. They are such smart actors in this game.

So the race is closer than anybody thinks. Don't be surprized if Moin becomes the front-runner.

Two main boycott supporters turn to voting

Today's reformists meeting in football field of Tehran university was wonderful. It was a bit too long, but it was almost full. Thousands of young men and women, maybe by the average age of 26, 27, had shown up despite the extremely hot weather and the burning sun.

But most significant thing happened today was the official announcement by two very popular reformist figures who actually had long boycotted the elections, but now changed their mind and encouraged people to participate and vote.

They were Mohsen Kadivar, the outspoken and smart cleric who spent about two your in jail for his anti-Khamenei stands, and Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, the young female reformist MP who was the first MP who resigned after the parliament election fiasco last year. Now they are backing Moin's campaign.

Also was significant that Reza Khatami, Moin's to-be-vice president, didn't speak at the meeting. The reason, though, became obvious after Moin himself started talking: He is such a bad speaker, despite his innocent face and likable character.Khatami on the contrary, is a passionate speaker. So he could have overshadowed the main candidate who is Moin.

But who cares? Nobody is actually going to vote for Moin for himself. The is the first time that a presidential candidate is earning credibility from his campaign staff, not the other way around. Eight years ago, few knew Mohammad Khatami's main campaign team and strategists. But now Hajarian, Tajzadeh, Reza Khatami, etc. are more popular than Moin himself.

So I think Moin will be facing an bigger challenge the the one with Khamanei: how to deal with people who offered them candidacy and would be setting all important policies and strategists had he win. In this respect, Moin is very much like Bush.

By the way, I've taken so many photos and recorded numerous videos, but due to internet censorship and low-speed connection I can't upload them.

Hopeful Moin

The recent wave of bombing has not really affected the mood of the people. I haven't seen many people talking about it. But those who do, are seeing it as something planned to benefit Rafsanjani or Qalibaf, and to harm Moin. The stability will increase the turn out which is only to Moin's benefit.

Meanwhile, while I was at the Moin campaign headquarters last night, they were quite upbeat about the new poll results indicating Qalibaf's decline and Moin and Ahmadinejad's rise. So some of them were even hopefull about the Moin lead in the last remaining days.

I also want to visit Larijani's campaign which has actually been the worse campaign I've ever seen. Larijani is such a smart guy with a rich resume, but he is such a bad campaginer who even seems lame comparing to Qalibaf who doesn't have tenth of Larijani's stature.

I'm now leaving for Moin supporters' meeting in east-center of Tehran. Will take some pictures as well. I'm so glad I bought this little SD300 from that amazing store in New York City.

The cheesy 'HASHEMI'

It's really painful working with a dialup connection, especially when your own domain name (hoder.com), Flickr, and so many other websites are blocked by TCI. Everything takes take ten times more this way and this simply could make me completely innefective, had I been living here. So kudos to all Iranian bloggers. Seriously.

The other frustrating thing is that without polls, campaigning becomes like wandering in the dark. Don't know about other campaigns, but reformist campaign seems to be more focusing on working on the ground on a more face-to-face level. So all reformist people are now off to smaller cities where they have a better chance to win. Mostafa Tajzadeh, for example, is off to Mianeh today for a campaign speech along with the former reformist MP of the city which has a Sunni and Kurd population.

However, Rafsanjani is using media extensively. His campaign tv show, the other night, was the topic of discussion yesterday. Pro-reform friends were disgusted by a short moment of 'fake' sentiment he had shown off on TV and the way Rafsanjani is using teenagers to remake his image.