Editor: Myself

Guessing game

Who do you guess has said the following paragraph? Read it and I'll tell you later:

Iran today is very much like the Soviet Union in its last days. The ideology has burnt out, Iranian youngsters are disenchanted, the reform movement has failed to fulfil the popular demand and there has been practically every year spontaneous rioting and uncivil unrests in the major cities of Iran. But 25 years after the revolts that did away with the Shah and his regime, there is an absence of an organizational factor to unite the diverse inspirations of Iranians.

[..]

Based on this analysis of the Iranian situation, we are left with three scenarios for the future of Iran:

1) In the first scenario the Iranian regime will weather the storm and the so -called pragmatists or centrists among the ruling elite of Iran will be the survivors. Thanks to a leadership vacuum among the opposition, the centrists will buy some time by offering a series of strategic concessions. These concessions may come in two forms: to the West on the issue of WMDs and the Middle East peace plan, and to the Iranians in the area of social controls and guardianship (which could be replaced by the Expediency Council with a sudden death of Ayatollah Khamenei). Under this formula, Iran will integrate in the market economy and there will certainly be a shift from a monopolistic, mafia-type of economy represented by the new class of property owners to a more normalized market stability and investment security. The tendency of the pragmatist political leaders such as Rafsanjani and Mohsen Rezaii and centrist religious intellectuals such as Sadegh Ziba Kalam and Shamsolvaezin towards centrist politics is, in a sense, is a reflection of this change in Iran’s capitalist class. In this first scenario Rafsanjani will have an important role as the power broker.

2) In the second scenario unlike the first one the clerical regime will not be able to stand the socio-economic and political pressures and will be left with only one option to defend itself and that is a “palace coup” by the conservatives and the security agents such as Asgaroladi (leader of the Islamic Coalition Group), Badamchian and Shariatmadari (editor in chief of the journal Kayhan) to save the Revolution and the political Islam. Unclear though is the role played in this scenario by Ayatollah Khamenei?

3) In the third scenario the regime change will be inevitable. Irrespective of tactical manoeuvres by the Islamic regime and the absence of an organized leadership by the opposition, the regime will be unable to stave off the energy of dissent and answer the demands of the Iranian youth and Iran will see a series of urban unrests. In this scenario, there is also the closing of a window of opportunity for the Iranian regime and the imminence of political chaos in Iran.

Zainab Al-Suwaij endorsed by Amnesty International defends Haleh Esfandiari

Recently I've become quite suspicions of the human rights non-government organisations when it comes to their campaigns related to Iran.

Now it's quite revealing and equally disturbing to see a faithful supporter of Iraq occupation, involved in an Amnesty International event in New York.

First look at the announcement I received from a mailing list (See a copy on the Free Haleh campaign website):

Amnesty International

RALLY TO SUPPORT HUMAN RIGHTS IN IRAN AND TO CALL FOR JUSTICE FOR DETAINED IRANIAN-AMERICAN SCHOLARS AND ACTIVISTS

THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT HAS RECENTLY BEEN ENGAGED IN A WIDESPREAD CRACKDOWN ON ALL FORMS OF DISSENT IN IRAN

In May the government of Iran arrested four Iranian-Americans: prominent U.S. scholars Haleh Esfandiari and Kian Tajbakhsh, journalist Parnaz Azima and activist Ali Shakeri. Esfandiari, Tajbakhsh and Shakeri remain in detention where they are subject to torture and ill-treatment. All four face serious charges stemming from their peaceful activism and scholarly work and could be sentenced to long prison terms.

JOIN AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL, THE AMERICAN ISLAMIC CONGRESS AND HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH AS WE CALL FOR JUSTICE AND FOR THE RELEASE OF DETAINED PEACEFUL ACTIVISTS

SPEAKERS TO INCLUDE SHAUL BAKHASH, HUSBAND OF HALEH ESFANDIARI, AND ZAINAB AL-SUWAIJ OF THE AMERICAN ISLAMIC CONGRESS

WHERE: Ralph Bunche Park Isaiah Wall at 1st Avenue and 42nd Street across from the United Nations Plaza

WHEN: Wednesday June 27, 12 noon to 1 pm

Feel free to bring signs calling for freedom for the detained activists

For more information contact Sharon McCarter 202-691-4016 or Amnesty International USA 202-675-8755

Now let's see who Zainab Al-Suwaij is (Source: Harvard Gazzette):

"Now 33, Al-Suwaij grew up under the harsh rule of Saddam Hussein, took up arms against the Iraqi ruler, and today is working to bring democracy - and especially women's rights - to a country that is struggling both with Hussein's legacy and an age-old authoritarian tradition."

She has met with President George W. Bush at the White House and spoken to the Republican National Convention.

"Before becoming a peace-wager, Al-Suwaij was a warrior - and has the bullet scar on her cheek to prove it. When her classmates were forced to march holding pictures of Hussein, Al-Suwaij often sneaked away. At 20, during the 1991 Gulf War, she heeded the words of the first President Bush, who broadcast messages on Voice of America urging the Iraqi people to rebel against Hussein, promising that U.S. forces would support them. As an armed fighter, she helped to liberate provinces and to open the gates of a prison where there was a human meat grinder for those who didn't confess. The promised support from the United States never arrived, and the battle-scarred veteran went into exile in the United States.

President George W. Bush talks with Zainab Al-Suwaij during a meeting with Iraqi-Americans and free Iraqis who are living in the United States in the Roosevelt Room Friday, April 4, 2003. White House photo by Eric Draper. (Source: White House)

"Following the tragedies of Sept. 11 Al-Suwaij created the American Islamic Congress with the goal of promoting moderation and tolerance within and outside the Islamic community. After the American occupation of Iraq she has also spent 14 months there working to develop projects focused on improving the educational system - her schools for dropouts have a 97 percent rate of success - and empowering Iraqi women.

"Al-Suwaij credits her drive to organize for democracy to lessons learned from her grandfather, a Shiite ayatollah. 'My family is shocked. I am the first woman in my family who doesn't just stay home,' she said. 'My grandmother didn't believe it when she saw my photo with Bush in the Iraqi papers.'"

This is from her speech at the Republican National Convention after the occupation of Iraq, where she also personally endorsed by George W. Bush:

Living under Saddam Hussein, we could not gather as we do now to discuss things like democracy and freedom. We could only dream of a day when we could speak freely, and worship God in ways of our own choosing.

Instead, we lived under a murderer who used every weapon in his arsenal against us-- from tanks to torture chambers to poison gas.

[...]

But today, I come to tell you that Iraq enjoys a new day.

Yes, there is still bloodshed and uncertainty -- but America, under the strong, compassionate leadership of President Bush, has given Iraqis the most precious gift any nation has ever given another --- the gift of democracy and the freedom to determine its own future.

Already, the seeds of democracy are bearing fruit --- with popular elections recently held for local officials. And we know our children face a brighter future.

So as I grieve for the courageous Americans and Iraqis who were killed and injured during Iraq's liberation, I tell you proudly that their noble sacrifice was not in vain.

As Iraqis assume full sovereignty, they embrace the American people in friendship and gratitude.

I promise you: we will never forget what your sons and daughters did for us.

Thank you.

Interestingly enough, she has also founded Hands Across the Mideast Support Alliance (HAMSA) that was behind a nasty campaign against Mohammad Khatami's speech at Harward, along with Boroumand Foundation. Luckily,

By a bit of more googling, I'm sure I'd find much more to thicken her impressive profile in supporting and facilitating US-backed regime change in the Middle East.

So I wonder how Zainab Al-Suwaij has ended up being endorsed by Amnesty International, with its impressive history to oppose the US invasion of Iraq and its condemnation of the occupation.

Call me a cynic or a paranoid agent of the Islamic Republic, but I can't just see all these connections and endorsements as an accident.

There is something fishy here, don't you think?

On Karim Sajadpour's 'The Costs of Iran’s Political Pageantry'

It's sad to see how many exiled Iranian 'experts' have exchanged their objectivity and independent sense of truth with a pro-American bias. Although, when you live in the U.S. and want to work in a think-tank, even a democrat-leaning one, it would be very self-destructive to do otherwise.

I've been following Karim Sajadpour since he was an expert with International Crisis Group and have usually found his analysis from a rather objective and independent point of view.

But his recent column in the Washington Post's PostGlobal, titled 'The Costs of Iran’s Political Pageantry' suggests he has departed from his previous perspective and now very clearly sees the world from an American point of view rather than an objective, independent one.

I hope it has nothing to do with his new job as an analyst at the American Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The following is a comment under his column that I think has done a valid and brief critique of Sajadpour's piece:

Mr. Sadjadpour is making a commentary not from an objective, non biased point of view, but rather from a very Pro-American / Pro-British point of view, and therefore he negates the possible informative aspect of this article in to no more than "spin" and propaganda, which is no different than the behavior of some of the Iranian elements which he attempts to scrutinize and show criticism towards.

His article is also intentionally misleading towards the true dynamics of these current events in attempt to make something appear to be one thing when it is something else all together.

In one line Sadjadpour says: "After all, Iran publicly humiliated its long-time nemesis Britain", and though this statement is true, as technically speaking Britain came out of this with the short end of the stick and Iran has acquired some well deserved points for its proficiency in nonconventional diplomacy, the fact of the matter is that Sadjadpour attempts to mislead us all when he states "Tehran may feel like it has chastened the Europeans to think twice before working in concert with the U.S. . . "

The "Europeans"? Granted the U.K. is a member of the European Union, but Britain does not represent European interests in the Middle East, nor have the "Europeans" as a collective been affected in any significant way by the recent events between Iran and the U.K., events which has definitely affected Britain.

If Iran was trying to convey a message to anyone, it's message was to the United States, The United Kingdom and Israel and more importantly a message to it's Arab neighbors. Yet to say that this issue was between "Europe" and Iran in any direct or indirect manner, or that there is some sort of ongoing political tension between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Europe is purely BOVINE EXCREMENT as they might say.

It appears to be an ongoing pattern for the western world to both misrepresent the truths of what is occurring in the Middle East and at the same time to underestimate both Western and Local Middle Eastern capabilities to confront the issues and tensions which seem to perpetually stir in the region.

Both the United States and the U.K. have made very critical and significant mistakes and miscalculations when dealing with both the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, two nations which did not even come close to the capabilities of Iran currently possesses in way of Martial philosophy and stratagem. If the United States and the U.K. are finding it difficult to manage and contain Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran would only turn out to be the greatest and most long lasting mistake that the U.S. could ever make if it decided to initiate an open and actual conflict the the Islamic Republic.

Sadjadpour highly criticizes Iran for double standards, yet fails to own up to the double standards of both the United States and Great Britain.

There are no innocent players in this game. The United States and The U.K. are no less oppressive than Iran, and I would venture to say though that Iran might end up the more justified in the long run.

Iran may not emerge out of this as "The Winner" in the long run, but neither will it become the "loser" either. The only ones who will fail to succeed and suffer loss in this continuing SNAFU will be the United States and the United Kingdom, two nations which seem to never learn from their previous historical mistakes.

Iran's Lesson From Anglo-saxon Disinformation Machineّ

My latest comment in The Guardian's commentary section is about Iran's possible use of disinformation and global media in its PR war with the Anglo-saxon media. You can leave your comments below the piece in the Guardian's website.

Tricks of the intelligence trade (The Guardian)

A likely scenario, I think, is that the Iranian interrogators have been feeding disinformation to the British sailors and have managed to make them believe not only that they were in Iranian waters when caught but that the British government has also admitted this and apologised for it, and that now they have realised their mistake, a genuine apology would best serve their own and their country's interest.

There the UK and US governments fed the media with disinformation and the media in turn manipulated the people into doing what the government wanted: approving and supporting the invasion of Iraq.

Here, the Iranian Intelligence service has fed the detained sailors with a different type of disinformation to have them do or say what Iran wants: admitting the border violation and apologising for it, and then it has used the media to spread these statements.

What Iran is doing now by using the combination of disinformation and global media has long been used by the UK and US governments. Iran has just learned its lesson very well.

Reproducing American Propaganda in Rooz's Cartoons

If you wonder why the Islamic Repbulic is suspicious about a possible American-Dutch partnership to fund Iranian opposition and reproduce the American propaganda, I would ask you to just take a look at these cartoons, published in Rooz, one of the Dutch-funded media projects on Iran.

The two editorial cartoons (One, Two) have been published at the same time that the U.S. has started its big campaign to accuse Iran of meddling in Iraq's affairs and helping the sectarian violence.

"Iran's footsteps in Iraq"

"Meddling?"

Mind you that the 15 million Euros funding was proposed by Farah Karimi, a Dutch-Iranian former MP and a former member of MEK (MKO), and is now being distributed among media projects in Persian ino rder to promote to promote Human Rights and Democracy in Iran.

Disclaimer: Until a few months ago, I was the website of Rooz. But due to some financial problems I don't work with them anymore. But I never had any editorial role in what they did. However, while I had the job I was bound to an oral agreement as to not publicly critise the content of Rooz.

The World: We Needs More Power Point Presentations to Believe the Americans

So the U.S. has started to show evidence that the reason their plans for creating a democracy in Iraq is not working is not their own plans and policies, but it is Iran to blame.

I just wonder if they have also included some PowerPoint and low-quality audio clips too in which Mohammad, a top Iranian government official, speaks to someone saying "Listen Haji, you should work more on your advanced bombs. This one only killed 10 Americans. Did you hear me? I want you to improve the quality of your anti-American explosives."

It's very strange that the BBC has not created a Have Your Say for this story.