{"id":137,"date":"2026-03-25T18:02:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T14:32:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hoder.com\/en\/?p=137"},"modified":"2026-03-26T14:49:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T11:19:48","slug":"the-hormuz-era","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hoder.com\/en\/posts\/137","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Weapon of Mass Disruption"},"content":{"rendered":"

How Iran\u2019s defensive doctrine shift from nukes to Hormuz can transform itself and the wider Middle East<\/span><\/p>\n

By Hossein Derakhshan*<\/p>\n

Three weeks into the US-Israel war of choice against Iran, Tehran has unveiled an unmatched weapon of mass disruption: The Strait of Hormuz. Extensive detail has now been published on how deep these disruptions affect the global flow of energy, food, and hi-tech. But little has been said about its domestic implications inside Iran.<\/p>\n

For thirty years, a futile nuclear programme, which neither produced energy nor deterrence, constituted the core of Iran\u2019s defensive doctrine. It incurred billions of dollars of direct costs for R&D, manufacturing, and protection, and imposed billions of dollars more in lost income and opportunities because of the isolation that followed. But it also caused a repressive political environment that continuously weakened all factions who disagreed with it.<\/p>\n

While the Strait of Hormuz was always viewed as a last resort in an existential conflict, it was primarily discussed as a fantasy rather than a real possibility. The war has changed that.<\/p>\n

Even among the most loyal proponents of the Iranian government who long advocated for the nuclear capability, cracks have emerged. \u201cHormuz is more powerful than fifty atomic bombs,\u201d said one in a recent discussion. If this holds and the Strait of Hormuz emerges as Iran’s greatest defensive asset, it will transform Iran in three ways:<\/p>\n

In contrast to the nuclear programme, there is now zero disagreement within Iran among political factions on the geopolitical power of the strait. The naked reality of its force goes beyond reformers and even includes the opposition. Without the rifts over the nuclear programme, most justifications by the hardline elite to purge and undermine the moderates, which began in mid-2000s when the Supreme Leader Khamenei decided to achieve a full-cycle nuclear fuel programme, will render irrelevant.<\/p>\n

Economically, the shift will not only liberate Iran from the economic sanctions that have shrunk its size, but it can generate massive amounts of easy cash through a levy system.<\/p>\n

Finally, the doctrinal shift from the nuclear to the Persian Gulf will gradually eradicate the existential anxiety that Israel feels from Iran and its allies. The Persian Gulf is too far from Israel and too passive of a deterrent compared to nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

The new Middle East will take shape as a consequence of geography, and acknowledging it by the global powers can spare further deaths and destruction.<\/p>\n

\u2014-<\/p>\n

* Hossein Derakhshan is a London-based researcher and analyst. He spent six years in Evin prison in Iran from 2008 over his pioneering blog.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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